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Improved Forecasting of Extreme Rainfall Events Associated with Tropical Cyclones

Research Sponsored by the NOAA CSTAR Program

This research addresses a series of scientific objective aimed at increased understanding of the physical processes (both internal and external to the tropical cyclone (TC)) that focus rainfall patterns in TCs, determining the predictability of high-end rainfall based on those parameters, and improving our understanding of GFS rainfall model bias. The objectives are:

  1. Develop a real-time rainfall forecast product (through 5 days lead time) that can be track adjusted within the NHC forecast cone to provide important contingency forecasts for NWS offices and River Forecast Centers.
  2. Provide an objective analysis of model bias to provide forecasters with a better understanding of when to trust the model guidance, and for model developers to further focus their improvement efforts.
  3. Identify important environmental parameters that could lead to better TC precipitation forecasts in the future.
  4. Improve rainfall distribution forecasts to uphold the NWS mission and to prevent public outcry during over and under forecasted events.

The creation of a bias corrected model (2) will permit the development of the forecast product (1). This product will lead to improved rainfall forecasts (4) which could eventually improve model precipitation schemes in the future (3).

Graduate Student on this Project

Ryan Walsh

Principal Investigator

Henry Fuelberg

Co-Principal Investigator

Robert Hart

last updated February 24, 2014